An Explainable Machine Learning Framework for Forecasting Crude Oil Price during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Financial institutions, investors, central banks and relevant corporations need an efficient and reliable forecasting approach for determining the future of crude oil price in an effort to reach optimal decisions under market volatility. This paper presents an innovative research framework for precisely predicting crude oil price movements and interpreting the predictions. First, it compares six advanced machine learning (ML) models, including two state-of-the-art methods: extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM). Second, it selects novel data, including user search big data, digital currencies and data on the COVID-19 epidemic. The empirical results suggest that LGBM outperforms other alternative ML models. Finally, it proposes an interpretable framework for facilitating decision making to interpret the prediction results of complex ML models and for verifying the importance of various features affecting crude oil price. The results of this paper provide practical guidance for participants in the crude oil market.

Changes of COVID-19 Knowledge, Attitudes, Practices and Vaccination Willingness Among Residents in Jinan, China.

Background: Vaccine hesitancy is responsible for low vaccine coverage and increased risk of epidemics. The purpose of this study was to assess whether public knowledge, attitudes, practices, and willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 have changed over time and at different stages of vaccination. Methods: Two consecutive surveys were conducted among residents of the Leshan Community in Jinan from May to June, 2021 (n = 423) (basic dose vaccination phase) and from December, 2021 to January, 2022 (n = 470) (booster vaccination phase). Randomly sampling was used in residents to complete an anonymous questionnaire. Chi-square test was used to compare the changes in knowledge, attitudes and practices of the subjects in different survey stages. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to explore factors related to vaccination hesitancy. Results: In the booster vaccination phase, protective behaviors (89.9%) of residents increased significantly compared with the basic vaccination phase (74.5%). Residents were more hesitant to receive booster doses than basal doses of COVID-19 vaccine (OR: 18.334, 95% CI: 9.021-37.262). Residents with other marital statuses (OR: 2.719, 95% CI: 1.632-4.528), negative attitudes toward government measures were more hesitant to get vaccinated (OR: 2.576, 95% CI: 1.612-4.118). People who thought their physical condition was very good or good were more likely to be vaccinated than those who thought they were in fair or poor health (OR: 0.516, 95% CI: 0.288-0.925; OR: 0.513, 95% CI: 0.295-0.893). Young people inclined to use new media (such as WeChat and microblog) to obtain information, while the elderly inclined to use traditional methods (such as television). Government propaganda, residents' perception of the importance of vaccines and the risk of disease were the main reasons for accelerating residents to vaccinate. The main reasons affecting residents' lack of vaccination were contraindications to the vaccine or inconvenient time for vaccination. Conclusions: Vaccine hesitancy increased significantly with change in vaccination stage. Strategies should be adopted to increase vaccination coverage such as improving the convenience of vaccination, promoting through multiple channels.

COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy among Adolescents: Cross-Sectional School Survey in Four Chinese Cities Prior to Vaccine Availability.

To address the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, development and regulatory evaluations have been accelerated for vaccines, authorizing emergency use. To anticipate vaccine preparedness in adolescents, we studied COVID-19 vaccination awareness and willingness to vaccinate before the vaccine became available. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 9153 (4575 boys, 50%) students with a mean age of 14.2 years old in four cities in China to collect information on demographic characteristics and their COVID-19 vaccination concerns. Multinomial logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of vaccine hesitancy ("not sure") and resistance ("do not want it"). The results showed that 2891 (31.6%) were hesitant and 765 (8.4%) were resistant to being vaccinated. Additionally, multivariable analyses showed that vaccine hesitancy and vaccine resistance were associated with living in the Beijing area (OR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.40-1.88; OR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.44-2.28), lack of influenza vaccination experience (OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.14-1.55; OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.25-1.98), no perceived susceptibility (OR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.50-1.97; OR = 3.57; 95% CI: 2.86-4.46), and perceiving no cues to action (OR = 3.24; 95% CI: 2.56-4.11; OR = 27.68; 95% CI: 21.81-35.13). Postulating a highly effective vaccine (OR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72-0.98; OR = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.52-0.83) decreased both vaccine hesitancy and resistance. Vaccine hesitancy alone was associated with girls (OR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.09-1.36) and was less common among students boarding at school (OR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.68-0.92), postulating convenient vaccine access (OR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.73-0.96), and having doctors' recommendation (OR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.76-0.98). In conclusion, the results of the study showed that vaccine hesitancy among students in China was associated with limited health literacy and lower risk awareness. Our findings in China suggest that educating youth regarding COVID-19 and the safety and effectiveness of immunization help reduce concerns and increase vaccine confidence and acceptance.

Changing Educational Assessments in the Post-COVID-19 Era: From Assessment of Learning (AoL) to Assessment as Learning (AaL)

The upgrade educational information technology triggered by COVID-19 has shaped a new educational order and new educational forms. As a result, traditional educational measurement is now facing a systematic transformation, that is, from the Assessment of Learning (AoL) to Assessment for Learning (AfL), and finally to Assessment as Learning (AaL). By showing the initiative and the flexibility of large-scale online learning during the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper examines the evolution from AoL to AaL from four aspects: participants, test form, multivariate data for process-based measurement, and measurement models for multivariate data. We propose multidisciplinary corporations in the field, which integrate education, psychology, and information technology into the theories and methods of educational measurement. Further, we emphasize that the validity, ethics, and fairness of the measurement should also be considered the critical issues. Researchers and practitioners of educational measurement must persist in pursuing the substantive significance of measurement and provide unique experience and guidance for the theoretical and practical development of educational assessment in this great revolution.

Analysis of Anxiety and Depression Status in Patients Undergoing Radiotherapy During the COVID-19 Epidemic.

Background: The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) had caused a global pandemic and disrupted millions of lives. Cancer patients are a special group at greater risk of contracting viruses. This study aimed to evaluate the anxiety and depression status of cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy during the COVID-19 epidemic. Methods: 396 cancer patients who underwent radiotherapy were enrolled in this study. The self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) and self-rating depression scale (SDS) were used to evaluate patient anxiety and depression, respectively. 373 cancer patients completed the questionnaires. Results: During the COVID-19 outbreak, the incidence of anxiety and depression in cancer patients were 34.9 and 33.8%, respectively. Approximately 31.4% of tumor radiotherapy patients had anxiety and depression. Based on univariate analysis, age, work status, education level, and clinical stage were related to anxiety and depression in cancer patients. Based on multiple regression analysis, age and clinical stage were related to anxiety, but only age was related to depression. Conclusions: Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, cancer patients experienced increased psychological problems. Our results have contributed to a better understanding of these psychological problems in cancer patients and provide a basis for psychological counseling and intervention.

Biochemical indicators of coronavirus disease 2019 exacerbation and the clinical implications.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has sparked a global pandemic, affecting more than 4 million people worldwide. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can cause acute lung injury (ALI) and even acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); with a fatality of 7.0 %. Accumulating evidence suggested that the progression of COVID-19 is associated with lymphopenia and excessive inflammation, and a subset of severe cases might exhibit cytokine storm triggered by secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (sHLH). Furthermore, secondary bacterial infection may contribute to the exacerbation of COVID-19. We recommend using both IL-10 and IL-6 as the indicators of cytokine storm, and monitoring the elevation of procalcitonin (PCT) as an alert for initiating antibacterial agents. Understanding the dynamic progression of SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial to determine an effective treatment strategy to reduce the rising mortality of this global pandemic.

Diagnosis of Suspected Small Bowel Bleeding by Capsule Endoscopy in Patients with COVID-19.

The current study evaluated the application of small-bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients with suspected small bowel bleeding. We analyzed the clinical characteristics, SBCE procedures, examination results, and treatment for cases of suspected small bowel bleeding in two patients with critical COVID-19. SBCE showed active spotting bleeding in the jejunum and ileum with no identifiable lesions in case 1, while multiple small bowel ulcers were detected in case 2. Two patients had relevant changes in their management plans and received specific treatment based on SBCE findings. In summary, SBCE proved to be a non-invasive diagnostic tool for critical COVID-19 patients with suspected small bowel bleeding.

Impact of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Epidemic on Radiotherapy-Treated Patients with Cancer: A Single-Center Descriptive Study.

INTRODUCTION: The present study investigated hospitalization data of patients receiving radiotherapy at Anhui Cancer Hospital during the COVID-19 epidemic and analyzed the impact of the epidemic on the clinical data of radiotherapy patients to provide references for the feasibility and safety of radiotherapy at other medical institutions. METHODS: The present study performed a retrospective analysis of hospitalization data of patients undergoing radiotherapy at the Radiation Department (from January 5 to March 19, 2020 according to the Chinese lunar calendar), who were defined as the epidemic group. Hospitalization data for patients undergoing radiotherapy during the same period in 2019 were used as the control group for comparison with the epidemic group in terms of sex, age, distribution of various cancer types, hospitalization costs, average length of stay, completion rate of radiotherapy, treatment mode, and purpose of radiotherapy. RESULTS: A total of 79 and 115 patients received radiotherapy in the epidemic group and control group, respectively. The number of patients who received radiotherapy declined 31.3% during the epidemic period. The number of head and neck cancer patients who received radiotherapy was 36 (45.57%) in the epidemic group and 32 (27.83%) in the control group, which was a significant difference (χ2 =6.476, P=0.011). The proportions of patients with other types of cancer decreased, with no significant difference between the two groups (P>0.05). No significant differences between the two groups were found in terms of other hospitalization data (P>0.05). CONCLUSION: The total number of patients who received radiotherapy decreased during the epidemic period, but the proportion of head and neck cancer increased. The epidemic had no significant effect on other hospitalization data. While strengthening prevention and control measures, we should actively perform radiotherapy to ensure that cancer patients receive timely and safe treatment.